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Quarterly Thoughts – Q1 2009
That’s one “mean reversion!” If historical 10-year average cycles are any predictor, now is not the time to abandon long-term strategies (see chart). The response to excess in the form of the dot-com-bomb and the credit-crunch-chaos caused the last 10 years to be one of the worst in U.S. history. However, notice that weak 10-year periods always overshoot the mean, and are often followed by strong recoveries (i.e. your friend,…
Quarterly Thoughts – Q4 2008
The Chinese character for “crisis” is actually a composite of two other characters: “danger” and “opportunity.” Current financial markets are volatile, but also provide opportunity. By rebalancing portfolios, investors “buy low” and “sell high” systematically. At a time when stocks are “on sale,” by not selling, we are in effect “buying” at possibly bargain prices. Discipline pays off over the long haul.
Year-end 2008
It has been said that pilots are paid for “takeoffs” and “landings.” The recent “Miracle on the Hudson” is a reminder of the value of proper process and guidance during freak-events. A flock of birds flew into a jetliner’s engines rendering the engines useless, but a pilot with a lifetime focus on risk management successfully landed the plane in the Hudson River. It was a frightening, and there were minor…
Quarterly Thoughts – Q3 2008
Markets continue to be difficult. However, panic can damage long-term profit. As Burton G. Malkiel, professor of economics at Princeton University wrote recently in The Wall Street Journal, “Just because stock markets have panicked, investors should not. A century of investing experience, as well as insights from the field of behavioral finance, suggests that investors who bailout of equities during times like these are almost always making the wrong decision.”…
Quarterly Thoughts – Q2 2008
The Bear market has officially arrived, as measured by S&P 500 dropping 20% from its peak. There have been 31 bear markets since 1900, averaging one every 3 or 4 years. According to Standard and Poor’s Equity Research, we have experienced nine bear markets since 1956. They have varied in magnitude from the decline of 20% in 1990 to the drop of 48% in 1973-1974 to the plunge of 49%…
Quarterly Thoughts – Q1 2008
The credit/liquidity crunch and housing market decline continues… daily volatility is higher than average. The Reality of Red Numbers is a helpful reminder of how negative markets are more common and frequent than many people tend or like to remember. During uncertain times like these, it is more important than ever to stick with your long term investment strategy rather than react emotionally to the day-to-day market fluctuations. Resorting to…
Quarterly Thoughts – Q4 2007
Market volatility is the norm, not the exception. Clear patterns seem to appear… and then disappear. The “Periodic Table of Investment Returns” illustrates this well, and a strategic approach to investing ensures that investors benefit from the best returning asset classes, while avoiding over-exposure to the worst performing asset classes. The key message is that a diversified portfolio approach will combine many or all of these and other asset classes (as…
Year-end 2007
This is the time of the year that we honor and express our gratitude for our clients and friends. We do so by making donations to worthwhile causes that have directly and indirectly touched our lives or those of our clients. This year we have contributed to: • American Cancer Society • American Heart Association • Kaiser Permanente Hospice Program • Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research • National…