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Quarterly Thoughts – Q1 2009

That’s one “mean reversion!” If historical 10-year average cycles are any predictor, now is not the time to abandon long-term strategies (see chart). The response to excess in the form of the dot-com-bomb and the credit-crunch-chaos caused the last 10 years to be one of the worst in U.S. history. However, notice that weak 10-year periods always overshoot the mean, and are often followed by strong recoveries (i.e. your friend,…