There’s no question we’re all living in unsettled times. Global citizens and the world economy are under stress, and uncertainty is heightened in all aspects of our lives. People are worried about their health, and that of family, friends, neighbors. Some have temporarily or permanently lost jobs or taken a hit to their income. Leaders of many companies are forced to make difficult decisions. Social distancing is impacting the human…
What should you be training your brain to do now, given the longest bull-market ever? What are people doing with their better physical state later in life? Where are we in the business cycle now? What is the “Fed pivot” and how are market returns projections changing for the next 10 years? What does “growth recession” mean and is that the new normal? Where does the 2019 market return…
How many generations does it typically take to wipe out family wealth, and what can you do about it? What is the impact of emotional investing on the average investor’s returns? How would the economies of all US 50 states rank if they were countries? How should Fiduciaries evaluate target date funds? Is a CEO economic confidence index up or down? How many months after an inverted yield curve does…
Investors’ appetite for risk, while elevated for much of 2018, evaporated as the year drew to a close and wiped out positive returns for the year across broad asset classes (T-bills being a notable exception). Concerns over tighter monetary policy and the global withdrawal of stimulus measures, unresolved trade disputes, falling oil prices, slower global growth, and softer data in some U.S. indicators overshadowed other robust aspects of the domestic…
As we hit the 10-year anniversary, there are lessons to learn from the economic challenges and 2nd worst market in history, and subsequent recovery, that began a decade ago. 10 years is long enough that some people don’t even remember this major financial event, while others feel like they are still recovering, given that the economy’s recovery has been gradual, even though the market’s recovery has been strong… maybe a…
The Federal Reserve Bank’s Open Market Committee adjusts rates, down to stimulate the economy when needed, and up control inflation and prevent the economy from overheating during times of growth. In the first several years after the Great Recession, people thought little about rates. The Fed’s target rate fell to 0% late in 2008 and stayed at 0% for 7 years. Such extended periods of low rates is highly uncommon,…
Summer months are typically a quiet time for the markets. Recent events, however, may disrupt this tradition. Threats of escalating trade wars have cast a pall over equities, and numerous geopolitical uncertainties continue to push investors toward a more cautious stance. A desynchronization in global growth as well as a divergence in central banks’ monetary policies have contributed to U.S. dollar strength and wreaked havoc on emerging markets. Currencies of emerging…
2017: A Year of Records Macroeconomic Environment Another record low in volatility, more record highs in global stock markets, mixed records in global temperatures, a record number of natural disasters in the U.S., and many records associated with President Trump. The VIX Index, a widely used measure of expected stock market volatility, fell more than 20% in 2017, reaching an all-time low in November. Stock markets hit a number of…
