How many generations does it typically take to wipe out family wealth, and what can you do about it? What is the impact of emotional investing on the average investor’s returns? How would the economies of all US 50 states rank if they were countries? How should Fiduciaries evaluate target date funds? Is a CEO economic confidence index up or down? How many months after an inverted yield curve does…
Where are we in the business cycle? The stock market continues upward, but the bond market shows nervousness. Are stocks fairly valued or leaning over-valued? What positive returns are required when different levels of negative returns occur? Is that a quilt or the shapes of the stock market by size and number? 401k plan design trends and fiduciary priorities, via recent surveys. That and more in the Q219 Quarterly Context…
Why is the stock market cooling? Why and how many investors fail to do what disciplined/experienced investors do. People are still feeling confident about the future, but less so. Is your debt shrinking as a % of your income like the average person? How many times did the market drop 10% or more in the last 10 years? How common are market drops of -5%, -10%, -15% and -20%? Stock…
Investors’ appetite for risk, while elevated for much of 2018, evaporated as the year drew to a close and wiped out positive returns for the year across broad asset classes (T-bills being a notable exception). Concerns over tighter monetary policy and the global withdrawal of stimulus measures, unresolved trade disputes, falling oil prices, slower global growth, and softer data in some U.S. indicators overshadowed other robust aspects of the domestic…
As we hit the 10-year anniversary, there are lessons to learn from the economic challenges and 2nd worst market in history, and subsequent recovery, that began a decade ago. 10 years is long enough that some people don’t even remember this major financial event, while others feel like they are still recovering, given that the economy’s recovery has been gradual, even though the market’s recovery has been strong… maybe a…
What you should learn from the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) after 10 years. The economy is growing but with wobbles. How is the current market like the last major market rise? Patterns of how long the market rises and how much, vs. declines, can help you be a disciplined investor. Your focus should be different during accumulation vs. spending years. Market volatility creates tax savings opportunities, short and long-term. Learn…
The Federal Reserve Bank’s Open Market Committee adjusts rates, down to stimulate the economy when needed, and up control inflation and prevent the economy from overheating during times of growth. In the first several years after the Great Recession, people thought little about rates. The Fed’s target rate fell to 0% late in 2008 and stayed at 0% for 7 years. Such extended periods of low rates is highly uncommon,…
How new behavioral research can relate to financial behavior (e.g. bad soccer goalie decisions – a nod to recent world cup!, teams fire coaches too fast, the “IKEA effect” and how you place higher value on things you make yourself), how unconscious perception biases about aging cause people to under- or over-save, wages are up… but barely vs. inflation, interest rates are on the way up and imply certain risk…
