Life would be less interesting if we knew how everything would turn out in advance. However, the same factor of the unknown that makes investment markets nervous is what makes investing attractive in the long-run. Unpredictability can cause asset prices to drop, but is also indirectly what pushes prices higher when good news occurs and fear diminishes. Over the last year, surprises included continued slow global growth, the first interest…
Stock market volatility attracts a lot of attention in the news, which causes some people to believe that such fluctuations are the only retirement preparation risk. In reality, there are other risks that are worse. Here’s the lowdown… When scared investors reduce volatility risk (i.e. reduce or get out of stocks), other risks increase… inflation and longevity risk. Inflation risk is about rising prices, if your savings value isn’t also…
SUMMARY: The United Kingdom’s vote last week to leave the European Union has global significance, but it may take years to know the full impact. The U.K. is likely to feel long-term affects. In the short term, uncertainty about the degree of global ripple-effect makes investment markets nervous. Given tepid global economic growth, the medium-term stock market outlook that was already guarded before Brexit is a bit more so now,…
A few weeks ago, the Department of Labor finalized the new “Fiduciary Rule.” In concept it helps protect investors from abuse, but it has big gaps, through exceptions. Unfortunately the gaps are not easy to find, but could negate much of the intent of the new rule. As context, most people aren’t aware that investment advice companies fall into two groups: 1) A big group of companies, enormous and tiny,…
How many songs have you heard that include lyrics like “Here we go again” or “It happened again” or “I did it again”? There are many, because trials and tribulations in life are many. The best outcomes happen, however, when you push on through.
How often are monthly stock market returns negative? Is there a pattern within years or across years? How about the bond market? You may notice that short-term volatility is a fair price to pay… the longer the time period, the fewer the negative returns. In other words participation and patience pays. And, remember that inflation (i.e. purchasing power risk) is a bigger long-term risk than market volatility. Gain perspective from…
When one asset class is outperforming another within a diversified portfolio, investors sometimes wonder why both are held. The recent US stock market vs. the weaker International market such an example. The non-US stock market’s (MSCI EAFE) 3-year annualized return was not far off long-term stock averages, but the US market’s (S&P 500) unusually high 3-year return of 17.9% made well-balanced investors envious of less diversified portfolios. During the financial…
