2017: A Year of Records Macroeconomic Environment Another record low in volatility, more record highs in global stock markets, mixed records in global temperatures, a record number of natural disasters in the U.S., and many records associated with President Trump. The VIX Index, a widely used measure of expected stock market volatility, fell more than 20% in 2017, reaching an all-time low in November. Stock markets hit a number of…
Some time back, a fast food chain ran an advertising campaign featuring a study group of meat and cheese lovers. In the ad, the facilitator explains company’s new burger, and one of the test attendees indicates that he’d rather only have the tastiest part of the meal when he answers “I like the meat and cheese part, but why a bun?” Investors also sometimes ask themselves “Why the bun?”, however the question…
After 8 years of positive market returns and increased uncertainty in politics, should you be more worried about market fluctuation risk? Is it “different this time” and should you be more conservative as an investor? It is common to feel nervous and have questions questions at this point in a market cycle and when the Oval Office has changed hands. It may make sense to make a change if you…
It’s a new year and president, and with that comes uncertainty and many opinions about the direction of the investment markets. What’s key to remember is that uncertainty is nothing new. Studies suggest that despite major political and economic events that can impact returns in unpredictable ways in the short-run, it’s better to keep stay away from the panic button if you want better long-term results. A recently updated Dalbar,…
Life would be less interesting if we knew how everything would turn out in advance. However, the same factor of the unknown that makes investment markets nervous is what makes investing attractive in the long-run. Unpredictability can cause asset prices to drop, but is also indirectly what pushes prices higher when good news occurs and fear diminishes. Over the last year, surprises included continued slow global growth, the first interest…
Stock market volatility attracts a lot of attention in the news, which causes some people to believe that such fluctuations are the only retirement preparation risk. In reality, there are other risks that are worse. Here’s the lowdown… When scared investors reduce volatility risk (i.e. reduce or get out of stocks), other risks increase… inflation and longevity risk. Inflation risk is about rising prices, if your savings value isn’t also…
SUMMARY: The United Kingdom’s vote last week to leave the European Union has global significance, but it may take years to know the full impact. The U.K. is likely to feel long-term affects. In the short term, uncertainty about the degree of global ripple-effect makes investment markets nervous. Given tepid global economic growth, the medium-term stock market outlook that was already guarded before Brexit is a bit more so now,…
A few weeks ago, the Department of Labor finalized the new “Fiduciary Rule.” In concept it helps protect investors from abuse, but it has big gaps, through exceptions. Unfortunately the gaps are not easy to find, but could negate much of the intent of the new rule. As context, most people aren’t aware that investment advice companies fall into two groups: 1) A big group of companies, enormous and tiny,…
