Interesting contradictions between the economy and markets, Wall St. and Main St. remain… Wobbly economy but stocks, and gold and COVID-19 cases keep going up, while stimulation is high from rates remaining addictively rock-bottom low. How long is the recession expected to last? What impact will elections have on markets, and what has the historical impact been? The GDP annualization whip-saw. FAAANM (big tech) stocks’ increasing influence on markets and…
Where is the space between what matters and what you can control? How much did the market bounce back after the tough first coronavirus quarter? How is the disconnect between the weak economy and the market rebounding? What is the danger of over-confidence? Spending is down, savings are up. Will the coronavirus economy look more like the great depression or that of the Spanish Flu? Why do GDP numbers look…
Where are we in the business cycle? The stock market continues upward, but the bond market shows nervousness. Are stocks fairly valued or leaning over-valued? What positive returns are required when different levels of negative returns occur? Is that a quilt or the shapes of the stock market by size and number? 401k plan design trends and fiduciary priorities, via recent surveys. That and more in the Q219 Quarterly Context…
Why is the stock market cooling? Why and how many investors fail to do what disciplined/experienced investors do. People are still feeling confident about the future, but less so. Is your debt shrinking as a % of your income like the average person? How many times did the market drop 10% or more in the last 10 years? How common are market drops of -5%, -10%, -15% and -20%? Stock…
What you should learn from the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) after 10 years. The economy is growing but with wobbles. How is the current market like the last major market rise? Patterns of how long the market rises and how much, vs. declines, can help you be a disciplined investor. Your focus should be different during accumulation vs. spending years. Market volatility creates tax savings opportunities, short and long-term. Learn…
How new behavioral research can relate to financial behavior (e.g. bad soccer goalie decisions – a nod to recent world cup!, teams fire coaches too fast, the “IKEA effect” and how you place higher value on things you make yourself), how unconscious perception biases about aging cause people to under- or over-save, wages are up… but barely vs. inflation, interest rates are on the way up and imply certain risk…
Market volatility returns, markets often have long rises and “flat” spots, a periodic table of returns using sectors, discipline is key: missing out on the best 30 market days over the last 50 years would have led to a 40% lower return, research indicates a big gap between savings goals and actually savings patterns, higher savings might lengthen your life, and more.
What happened before markets started cooling in February? The bitcoin bubble… looks just like other bubbles. A new periodic table of returns design. Projected 10-year returns and risk. A visual of 229 years of returns, in return buckets. That and more in the Q417 Quarterly Context video.